Anderlecht
vs
Hammarby FF
Model Forecast
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Anderlecht are the model's most likely winner at 45.4%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 7.7% | 9.2% | 5.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds.
Anderlecht win
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 45.4%
- Model fair odds
- 2.20
- Available odds
- 2.05
- Expected value
- -6.9%
Odds are valid as of July 28, 2026, 09:34 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D
- Away: D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-07-23 · Hammarby FF · 1-1 · Anderlecht
Match Preview
Anderlecht return to Brussels needing to turn a balanced tie into a home advantage. The first leg finished 1-1, and that result matters because it showed Hammarby are capable of staying organised, absorbing pressure and striking back when given space. With qualification still open, this is the kind of match that can hinge on patience, tempo and one decisive moment rather than raw reputation alone.
The recent form snapshot is modest on both sides, with each team arriving on the back of just 1 draw. That does not create a strong current momentum edge for either camp, so the bigger clues come from the head-to-head and the setting. Anderlecht should enjoy more of the ball and more territorial control at home, but the first meeting showed that Hammarby can keep the game awkward and prevent the Belgian side from settling into a rhythm.
The broader forecast leans toward an Anderlecht win, yet the scoring profile is not the sort that screams a comfortable home stroll. The most likely scoreline in the model is 1-1, with 1-0 and 2-1 also close behind, which is a useful reminder that Hammarby are not expected to collapse. Both teams have shown enough to suggest chances can appear at either end, so this should be approached as a competitive qualifier with margins rather than as a straightforward home banker.
Anderlecht’s best route is to press their technical edge early, use the crowd, and force Hammarby deeper than they were in Stockholm. If the visitors stay compact and keep the game level for long periods, they can make the final stages tense. Even so, the stronger overall squad and home advantage still point the way for the Belgians.
ScoreCast Pick
Anderlecht win • Odds 2.05 • Confidence 6/10
Odds are valid as of July 28, 2026, 09:34 CET.