Atletico Madrid

vs

Arsenal

Injuries & Suspensions

• Atletico Madrid: P. Barrios (Muscle Injury), J. M. Gimenez (Injury), P. Barrios (Muscle Injury), J. M. Gimenez (Injury)
• Arsenal: M. Merino (Foot Injury), R. Calafiori (Knock), K. Havertz (Knee Injury), J. Timber (Ankle Injury), M. Merino (Foot Injury), R. Calafiori (Knock), K. Havertz (Knee Injury), J. Timber (Ankle Injury)

Form (Last 5)

• Home: W W L W L
• Away: W D W W D

H2H (Last 5)

• 2025-10-21 · Arsenal · 4-0 · Atletico Madrid
• 2018-07-26 · Atletico Madrid · 1-1 · Arsenal
• 2018-05-03 · Atletico Madrid · 1-0 · Arsenal
• 2018-04-26 · Arsenal · 1-1 · Atletico Madrid

Match Preview

Arsenal top the group with dominant form and goal difference; Atletico inconsistent at home and missing key players. Expect Arsenal to edge a decisive away win.

Key Notes

This tie looks to favor Arsenal despite it being away at a traditionally difficult Atletico Madrid ground. Arsenal arrive with outstanding recent form - 10 wins and 2 draws - and they lead the group with 24 points from eight matches and a +19 goal difference. That level of consistency and goalscoring makes them the clear threat here.

Atletico’s recent pattern is more uneven: 7 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses. While Diego Simeone’s side can be stubborn at home, their defensive stability is not guaranteed for this fixture. Atletico are missing P. Barrios through a muscle injury and J. M. Gimenez is listed as questionable, which weakens their midfield protection and central defence if Gimenez is absent or not at full strength.

Arsenal do carry concerns of their own. Mikel Arteta could be without Mikel Merino due to a foot injury, and R. Calafiori, K. Havertz and J. Timber are all questionable. Merino’s absence would reduce Arsenal’s control in the middle, and availability of the others could affect rotation choices. Even so, Arsenal’s underlying numbers and the breadth of quality across their squad make them resilient when key players are missing.

Head-to-head evidence also favors the visitors: Arsenal beat Atletico 4-0 at the Emirates in October 2025, showing they can break down Atletico’s compact structure. Given the standalone facts - Arsenal’s superior form, the group standings, recent H2H result and Atletico’s injury doubts - Arsenal are the sensible selection to take the three points.

Prediction: Arsenal to win. The pick balances Atletico’s home advantage against Arsenal’s clear momentum and attacking potency, making an away victory the most likely outcome.

Prediction

Arsenal win • Odds 2.67 • Confidence 8/10