CSKA Sofia
vs
Botev Plovdiv
Model Forecast
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
CSKA Sofia are the model's most likely winner at 58.6%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7% | 6.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 12.1% | 10.9% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 10.9% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 6.5% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds.
CSKA Sofia -1
This market is outside the current Value Engine coverage. The selection reflects the broader match analysis rather than a validated pricing edge.
Why?
This market is not supported by the current Value Engine.
Odds are valid as of July 25, 2026, 09:11 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D
- Away: D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-11-22 · CSKA Sofia · 2-1 · Botev Plovdiv
- 2025-07-19 · Botev Plovdiv · 1-1 · CSKA Sofia
- 2025-05-26 · Botev Plovdiv · 0-4 · CSKA Sofia
- 2025-05-09 · CSKA Sofia · 3-0 · Botev Plovdiv
- 2025-02-22 · Botev Plovdiv · 0-3 · CSKA Sofia
Match Preview
CSKA Sofia welcome Botev Plovdiv in the early stages of the Bulgarian season, and the basic case is straightforward enough: the home side look stronger, more established, and better equipped to dictate the game. CSKA are at home, they sit slightly higher in the early table, and their attacking numbers from the forecast are clearly superior. Botev have made a reasonable start themselves, but this still feels like a fixture in which CSKA should have the initiative.
That said, the recent form lines are thin because the campaign is only beginning, so the evidence comes more from team quality and the head-to-head history. CSKA have handled this opponent well before, including a 2-1 home win last November and a 3-0 victory at this same venue earlier in 2025. They were also dominant in older meetings, which reinforces the idea that Botev can struggle when CSKA settle into a rhythm.
There is also a clear style clue in the model projection. CSKA are expected to generate the better share of chances, and the most likely scorelines are all home-favoured, with 1-0 and 2-0 prominent. At the same time, the numbers do not scream a runaway result, and that is important because the locked pick asks for CSKA Sofia -1 rather than simply a home win. In other words, the selection needs a margin that is more demanding than the plain 1X2 lean.
Still, the context supports the home side to do the heavy lifting. Botev have not shown enough yet to suggest they can consistently absorb pressure away from home, while CSKA’s record in this matchup points to territorial control and scoreboard authority. If they convert early, the handicap becomes very live.
ScoreCast Pick
CSKA Sofia -1 • Odds 2.02 • Confidence 2/10