CSKA Sofia
vs
Qarabag
Model Forecast
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
CSKA Sofia are the model's most likely winner at 36.2%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 13.1% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds.
CSKA Sofia win
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 36.2%
- Model fair odds
- 2.76
- Available odds
- 2.60
- Expected value
- -6.0%
Odds are valid as of July 28, 2026, 09:34 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W W D
- Away: W W D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-07-23 · Qarabag · 0-0 · CSKA Sofia
- 2026-06-27 · CSKA Sofia · Qarabag
- 2023-07-04 · CSKA Sofia · 0-1 · Qarabag
- 2021-07-07 · CSKA Sofia · 0-1 · Qarabag
Match Preview
CSKA Sofia return home knowing this qualifier is finely poised, but the broader picture gives them a slight edge. Qarabag arrive with the same recent form record, and the first leg in Baku finished goalless, which tells you just how little separates these sides. There is no obvious gulf in momentum, and with both teams posting 2 wins and 1 draw in their latest run, this feels more about game management than attacking fireworks.
The draw in Azerbaijan was significant because it confirmed that Qarabag were not able to impose themselves over 90 minutes. CSKA Sofia, meanwhile, will be encouraged by the clean sheet away from home and by the fact they now get the return match on familiar ground. In a qualifying round where margins are usually small, home advantage and a more assertive second-leg approach can matter more than raw reputation.
The model leans toward a very even game, with home and away win probabilities essentially level and the 1-1 scoreline the most likely result. That is a useful warning that this should not be viewed as a straightforward home cruise. Still, CSKA’s home setting and the way the first leg unfolded make them the side marginally better placed to force the decisive moment.
With no injury issues reported and the head-to-head leaning toward low scoring, the safest reading is that this becomes a tense, narrow affair rather than an open shootout. CSKA Sofia have enough control and familiarity to edge it if the match opens up at the right time, even if Qarabag remain well capable of resisting.
ScoreCast Pick
CSKA Sofia win • Odds 2.60 • Confidence 4/10
Odds are valid as of July 28, 2026, 09:34 CET.