Dinamo Zagreb
vs
FC Thun
Model Forecast
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Dinamo Zagreb are the model's most likely winner at 66.5%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 4.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 11.9% | 9.5% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 2 | 12.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 3 | 8.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds.
FC Thun +1.5
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 58.2%
- Model fair odds
- 1.72
- Available odds
- 1.78
- Expected value
- +3.6%
Odds are valid as of July 25, 2026, 20:21 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: D
- Away: D
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-07-21 · FC Thun · 1-1 · Dinamo Zagreb
Match Preview
Dinamo Zagreb return to home soil as clear favourites, and the setting should suit them. Even after a first-leg 1-1 draw in Thun, they remain the side with the stronger reputation, deeper squad quality and greater attacking ceiling. The challenge now is not just to dominate territory, but to turn that superiority into a result without letting the game become disjointed.
The first leg offered FC Thun encouragement. They stood up well enough to leave Switzerland level, and that should give them belief that they can keep this return leg respectable for long spells. Their recent form is limited, but so is Dinamo’s in the supplied sample, with each side carrying only a draw into this meeting. That makes the head-to-head all the more relevant: Thun have already shown they can slow the game down and deny Dinamo a fast start.
Still, the bigger-picture strength clearly sits with the Croatian side. Dinamo Zagreb are at home, and home matches in this stage often reward the team that can sustain pressure and use superior technical quality in the final third. The model’s most likely scorelines cluster around a one- or two-goal Dinamo win, which fits the notion of control rather than chaos. FC Thun do not need to open up, and they probably won’t; their best route is structure, patience and trying to keep the margin manageable for as long as possible.
That is why this looks like a tie Dinamo should control, even if it does not become one-sided. The first-leg evidence argues against expecting a free-flowing home blowout, but it also leaves Dinamo with enough room to justify backing them to win the match.
ScoreCast Pick
FC Thun +1.5 • Odds 1.78 • Confidence 5/10
Odds are valid as of July 25, 2026, 20:21 CET.