Fiorentina

vs

Atalanta

Injuries & Suspensions

• Fiorentina: F. Parisi (Knee Injury), L. Ranieri (Red Card), M. Kean (Calf Injury), F. Parisi (Knee Injury), L. Ranieri (Red Card), M. Kean (Calf Injury)
• Atalanta: O. Kossounou (Thigh Injury), L. Bernasconi (Knee Injury), O. Kossounou (Thigh Injury), L. Bernasconi (Knee Injury)

Form (Last 5)

• Home: D D L D W
• Away: D L D W L

H2H (Last 5)

• 2025-11-30 · Atalanta · 2-0 · Fiorentina
• 2025-03-30 · Fiorentina · 1-0 · Atalanta
• 2024-09-15 · Atalanta · 3-2 · Fiorentina
• 2024-06-02 · Atalanta · 2-3 · Fiorentina
• 2024-04-24 · Atalanta · 4-1 · Fiorentina

Match Preview

Atalanta to win - superior away record and higher league standing; Fiorentina miss key players and have poor home form. Recent H2H also favors Atalanta.

Key Notes

Prediction: Atalanta to win.

Why this pick? Atalanta head into this fixture with the clearer form edge. Their away record shows 15 wins, 13 draws and 9 losses - a strong return on the road this season - while Fiorentina’s home form is underwhelming with 9 wins, 14 draws and 14 losses. In the standings provided Atalanta sit seventh with 58 points, indicating a more consistent season overall.

Injuries and availability shape the game. Fiorentina will be without F. Parisi (knee) and L. Ranieri is suspended after a red card; M. Kean is questionable with a calf problem. Losing Parisi and a suspended Ranieri weakens Fiorentina defensively and in midfield balance, and Kean’s doubt further clouds their attacking threat. Atalanta are missing O. Kossounou (thigh), with L. Bernasconi questionable, but their squad depth has coped well for much of the campaign, especially away from home.

Head-to-head context supports an away lean. Recent meetings include a 2-0 Atalanta victory on November 30, 2025, plus other wins for Atalanta in Bergamo. There are Fiorentina victories in this sequence too, but the weight of results on neutral/Atalanta grounds favors the visitors.

Tactical and situational note: Fiorentina’s tendency to draw or lose at home makes them vulnerable to a motivated Atalanta side that presses and exploits defensive absences. If Kean is absent or limited, Fiorentina’s ability to force returns will be reduced.

Given the combination of superior away form, higher league standing, key Fiorentina absences and recent H2H edges, Atalanta to win is the most likely outcome. Confidence: 7/10.

Prediction

Atalanta win • Odds 2.57 • Confidence 7/10