Kairat Almaty
vs
Omonia Nicosia
Model Forecast
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Kairat Almaty are the model's most likely winner at 43.6%, although the forecast remains competitive, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1% | 9.5% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.2% | 12.9% | 6.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 8.7% | 4.6% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds.
Kairat Almaty win
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 43.6%
- Model fair odds
- 2.29
- Available odds
- 2.15
- Expected value
- -6.2%
Odds are valid as of July 27, 2026, 09:15 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W W L
- Away: W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-07-22 · Omonia Nicosia · 1-0 · Kairat Almaty
- 2021-12-09 · Omonia Nicosia · 0-0 · Kairat Almaty
- 2021-09-16 · Kairat Almaty · 0-0 · Omonia Nicosia
Match Preview
Kairat Almaty host Omonia Nicosia in a tie that looks finely balanced on paper, even if the home side retain the edge from the forecast. Kairat have been the more productive side in their recent run, with 2 wins and 1 loss across their latest games, while Omonia arrive with 1 win and a more conservative profile. That said, the head-to-head record is a warning sign for the Kazakh side: Omonia won the most recent meeting 1-0 in Cyprus, and the clubs also shared two goalless draws in their earlier European encounters.
That history matters because it suggests Kairat may need patience rather than fireworks. The most recent meeting showed Omonia can keep this opponent quiet, and the broader pattern between the sides has generally been low-event. Kairat’s home numbers are respectable, but they are not overwhelming, and their recent scoring trend has been steady rather than explosive.
Omonia will likely be comfortable in a game where shape and organisation matter. They have enough in their recent form to stay competitive, and the market context reflects that this is not a straightforward home banker. Still, Kairat’s stronger overall momentum at this stage, plus the home setting, gives them the best chance of edging a close first-half-to-final-whistle battle.
The model’s projections are consistent with that picture: Kairat are marginally ahead on the win line, but the scores it sees most often are narrow ones such as 1-0 or 1-1. That points to a match where one goal could decide it, even if the home side have enough to get over the line.
ScoreCast Pick
Kairat Almaty win • Odds 2.15 • Confidence 1/10
Odds are valid as of July 27, 2026, 09:15 CET.