Kristiansund BK
vs
Start
Model Forecast
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Kristiansund BK are the model's most likely winner at 44.4%, although the forecast remains competitive and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.8% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Model probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds.
Start +1.5
This selection clears ScoreCast's minimum probability-edge and expected-value thresholds at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 77.3%
- Model fair odds
- 1.29
- Available odds
- 6.40
- Expected value
- +394.8%
Odds are valid as of July 24, 2026, 11:21 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Kristiansund BK: D. Tufekcic (Thigh Injury), D. Tufekcic (Thigh Injury)
- Start: F. Lien (Foot Injury), K. Tonnesen (Leg Injury), J. Torkildsen (Injury), J. Meyer (Groin Injury), M. Nordal (Illness), F. Lien (Foot Injury), K. Tonnesen (Leg Injury), J. Torkildsen (Injury), J. Meyer (Groin Injury), M. Nordal (Illness)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W L L L D
- Away: L W L L L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2023-08-05 · Kristiansund BK · 1-1 · Start
- 2023-04-16 · Start · 4-0 · Kristiansund BK
- 2020-09-20 · Start · 1-2 · Kristiansund BK
- 2020-08-09 · Kristiansund BK · 3-2 · Start
- 2018-09-02 · Kristiansund BK · 1-1 · Start
Match Preview
Kristiansund BK return home for a match that looks deceptively straightforward on paper. Their league position is a touch healthier than Start’s, and their overall form has been slightly more stable, with 3 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses compared with Start’s 1 win, 4 draws and 9 losses. That said, neither side is in commanding shape, and this is exactly the sort of fixture where the handicap market can tell a different story from the raw win column.
Start’s injury list is the first important factor. They arrive missing several players, with F. Lien, K. Tonnesen and J. Torkildsen all unavailable, while J. Meyer and M. Nordal are uncertain. That is disruptive, but Kristiansund are not untouched either, with D. Tufekcic ruled out. Even so, the balance of the game is not simply about absentees; it is about whether Start can absorb pressure long enough to keep the score respectable.
The head-to-head record also helps the case for a competitive away performance. These teams have shared draws, and recent meetings have not consistently produced a wide gap. Kristiansund have had the better of some encounters, but Start have shown enough resistance to suggest they can make this awkward, especially if the match settles into a lower-tempo contest.
The model’s most likely result is a Kristiansund win, but that does not contradict the handicap read. The projected score shape is fairly modest, with 1-1 and 2-1 among the leading outcomes, and that kind of profile gives Start a realistic route to staying inside the line even if Kristiansund edge the result.
With home advantage and steadier overall form, Kristiansund should be the more composed side. Yet the safer angle is that Start can keep the game from running away. The locked ScoreCast Pick is Start +1.5.
ScoreCast Pick
Start +1.5 • Odds 6.40 • Confidence 9/10