Malmo FF
vs
IF Elfsborg
Model Forecast
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Malmo FF are the model's most likely winner at 51.4%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 11.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Model probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds.
Malmo FF win
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 51.4%
- Model fair odds
- 1.94
- Available odds
- 1.85
- Expected value
- -4.9%
Odds are valid as of July 24, 2026, 14:51 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Malmo FF: Busanello (Inactive), K. Busuladzic (Yellow Cards), A. Christiansen (Leg Injury), P. Jansson (Knee Injury), Y. Karabelyov (Inactive), O. Sjostrand (Inactive), Busanello (Inactive), K. Busuladzic (Yellow Cards), A. Christiansen (Leg Injury), P. Jansson (Knee Injury)
- IF Elfsborg: P. Frick (Broken ankle), L. Richtner (Elbow Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L W W W D
- Away: D D L L L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-09-14 · IF Elfsborg · 2-2 · Malmo FF
- 2025-04-07 · Malmo FF · 2-1 · IF Elfsborg
- 2025-03-10 · Malmo FF · 1-0 · IF Elfsborg
- 2024-05-28 · Malmo FF · 2-1 · IF Elfsborg
- 2024-05-05 · IF Elfsborg · 3-1 · Malmo FF
Match Preview
Malmö FF return home with the stronger overall case in a matchup that has repeatedly produced competitive, open football. They sit slightly ahead of Elfsborg in the table and have the cleaner attacking profile, with a more productive season and better underlying balance between chance creation and control. The recent league meeting at Borås Arena finished 2-2, a reminder that Elfsborg can live with Malmö when the game becomes stretched, while Malmö’s 2-1 home win and cup success on this ground show they still know how to handle this opponent in Malmö.
The home side’s recent form is respectable enough to support confidence, even if it has not been flawless. Six wins, two draws and five losses is not dominant, but it is a stronger base than Elfsborg’s more draw-heavy record of four wins, six draws and four defeats. That said, Malmö arrive with defensive absences that matter. Busanello, A. Christiansen, P. Jansson and others are unavailable, so there is some risk that their back line is not at full strength. Even so, the overall squad quality and home advantage remain significant factors.
Elfsborg’s recent profile is built more on avoiding defeat than on imposing themselves. They have been stubborn, but too many draws have limited momentum, and the away side’s scoring output has been modest compared with Malmö’s. The model picture also leans toward a home win, and the projected scoreline points to a match in which Malmö do enough in attack without necessarily running away with it. That fits the historical pattern: these sides often produce chances at both ends, and BTTS is more likely than not.
Malmö’s stronger home record, superior league position and better attacking numbers make them the likelier winners, but the combination of Elfsborg’s resilience and the recent head-to-head history suggests this should be competitive rather than comfortable. Malmö to claim it, with both teams capable of threatening along the way, is the sensible way to read the contest.
ScoreCast Pick
Malmo FF win • Odds 1.85 • Confidence 6/10