Real Madrid

vs

Benfica

Injuries & Suspensions

• Real Madrid: J. Bellingham (Hamstring Injury), D. Ceballos (Muscle Injury), Eder Militao (Hamstring Injury), D. Huijsen (Muscle Injury), Rodrygo (Red Card)
• Benfica: N. Felix (Knee Injury), G. Prestianni (Suspended), S. Soares (Injury), J. Veloso (Shoulder Injury), G. Sudakov (Back Injury)

Form (Last 5)

• Home: W L W L W
• Away: W W L W L

H2H (Last 5)

• 2026-02-17 · Benfica · 0-1 · Real Madrid
• 2026-01-28 · Benfica · 4-2 · Real Madrid

Match Preview

Both sides have recent trends for low-scoring games; key attackers absent and Benfica’s away goals are limited, favoring under 2.5 goals in a cautious second-leg tie.

Key Notes

This second-leg clash at the Santiago Bernabéu looks primed for a low-scoring outcome. Real Madrid arrive with a strong home record of 6 wins, 3 losses overall, but notable absences weaken their attacking and defensive options: Jude Bellingham (hamstring), Rodrygo (suspension), Eder Militao (hamstring), Dani Ceballos (muscle) and D. Huijsen are all unavailable. Those absences reduce Real’s usual goal threat and defensive depth.

Benfica also face problems up front and in squad selection - N. Félix is out injured and G. Prestianni is suspended, with S. Soares also unavailable. Benfica’s away scoring form is poor: an average of 0.7 goals per away match and only four away goals in recorded fixtures. Their overall Champions League profile shows a strong tendency toward matches finishing with two goals or fewer: Benfica’s under/over 2.5 split heavily favors under 2.5 (12 under, 1 over in the provided sample).

Head-to-head adds further support for a tight scoreline. The recent meetings were 1-0 to Real and a 4-2 win for Benfica, showing the tie can occasionally produce more goals, but the first-leg 1-0 suggests both teams are capable of cautious tactical setups. Real’s home goal concessions are modest and their defensive averages indicate games often stay under the 2.5 threshold.

Tactically, Real can sit on a one-goal advantage, and with injured attackers they are likely to avoid open, high-risk play. Benfica’s struggles to score away and multiple absences point toward a conservative approach as they chase the deficit. Given both teams’ forms, defensive concerns and H2H context, Under 2.5 is a sensible pick with good value at the available odds.

Prediction

Under 2.5 • Odds 2.83 • Confidence 7/10