Rosenborg
vs
Fredrikstad
Model Forecast
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Rosenborg are the model's most likely winner at 54.9%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.4% | 10.9% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.8% | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds.
Draw
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 23.1%
- Model fair odds
- 4.33
- Available odds
- 3.75
- Expected value
- -13.4%
Odds are valid as of July 25, 2026, 09:11 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Rosenborg: D. Islamovic (Leg Injury), D. Islamovic (Leg Injury)
- Fredrikstad: S. Kvile (Knee Injury), S. Sorlokk (Foot Injury), S. Leach (Injury), O. Ohlenschlaeger (Injury), S. Owusu (Injury), S. Kvile (Knee Injury), S. Sorlokk (Foot Injury), S. Leach (Injury), O. Ohlenschlaeger (Injury), S. Owusu (Injury)
Form (Last 5)
- Home: L L D W W
- Away: W D W L L
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-05-28 · Fredrikstad · 0-2 · Rosenborg
- 2025-04-05 · Rosenborg · 1-0 · Fredrikstad
- 2024-07-27 · Fredrikstad · 2-2 · Rosenborg
- 2024-06-02 · Rosenborg · 1-1 · Fredrikstad
- 2024-05-01 · Fredrikstad · 1-0 · Rosenborg
Match Preview
Rosenborg host Fredrikstad in a meeting that looks more even than the table might suggest. The home side are only tenth in the standings, but they are still the likelier winners on paper thanks to home advantage and a slight edge in attacking projection. Fredrikstad sit just above them in the table, though their season has also been uneven, and that balance makes this a difficult one to separate cleanly.
Recent form underlines the uncertainty. Rosenborg’s return of four wins, three draws and six defeats is not the profile of a side offering much margin for comfort, while Fredrikstad’s four wins, two draws and seven losses is just as patchy. Both teams have been vulnerable and neither arrives looking especially authoritative. Injuries only add to the sense of a contest that could drift into a tactical stalemate, with Rosenborg missing D. Islamovic and Fredrikstad forced to manage several absences, plus a few doubtful names.
The head-to-head record is useful here because it shows both sides can live with the other. Rosenborg beat Fredrikstad 2-0 away last May, but the league meetings before that were tighter: a 1-0 Rosenborg win, then a 2-2 draw at Fredrikstad, and another 1-1 in the cup. That pattern suggests a matchup where margins are usually small, especially when Fredrikstad can slow the tempo and make Rosenborg earn everything.
The model’s goal projection also points to a fairly modest scoring game, with a draw among the most realistic match states. Rosenborg may be the more likely to win straight up, but not by enough to make the contest comfortable, and a level finish fits the overall picture best.
ScoreCast Pick
Draw • Odds 3.75 • Confidence 4/10