Universitatea Craiova
vs
Levski Sofia
Model Forecast
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Universitatea Craiova are the model's most likely winner at 48.8%, with a clearer model edge, with the BTTS outlook finely balanced.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 12.3% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.2% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Model probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds.
Universitatea Craiova win
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 48.8%
- Model fair odds
- 2.05
- Available odds
- 1.90
- Expected value
- -7.3%
Odds are valid as of July 27, 2026, 09:15 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Form (Last 5)
- Home: W W L
- Away: D W W
H2H (Last 5)
- 2026-07-22 · Levski Sofia · 1-0 · Universitatea Craiova
Match Preview
Universitatea Craiova welcome Levski Sofia needing to respond after losing the first leg 1-0 in Bulgaria. That result gives the visitors a valuable platform, especially as Levski arrive in better overall form with 2 wins and 1 draw from their latest sequence. Craiova’s recent run is respectable as well, with 2 wins and 1 loss, but the first-leg evidence matters here: Levski handled the occasion, limited space, and took the only goal of the night.
Craiova’s case rests largely on home advantage and the expectation that they can create more than they did in Sofia. Their recent attacking numbers are decent, and they have shown they can score in bursts, but they now face a Levski side that has been much harder to break down, conceding very little across its recent matches. The Bulgarian side’s compact shape and cleaner defensive record are exactly the sort of traits that can frustrate a team trying to overturn a deficit.
Head-to-head also adds an edge to the narrative: Levski have already proved they can beat Craiova in this tie, and that can influence the rhythm of a second leg even without a wider history between the clubs. Craiova should have more possession and more territory, but possession alone will not be enough if Levski remain disciplined and selective on the break.
The model sees the home side as the most likely winner, but only narrowly, and the goal profile suggests a relatively controlled match rather than an open shootout. That fits a second leg where urgency from Craiova meets caution from Levski, with the decisive moments likely to come from fine margins.
ScoreCast Pick
Universitatea Craiova win • Odds 1.90 • Confidence 5/10
Odds are valid as of July 27, 2026, 09:15 CET.