Viborg
vs
Odense
Model Forecast
Projected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match probabilities
Viborg are the model's most likely winner at 51.4%, with a clearer model edge and slightly favors both teams to score.
Probability matrix
Rows: home goals · Columns: away goals
| H\A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 11.1% | 6.4% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 5 | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Model probabilities derived from team performance and market expectations. They are not bookmaker odds.
Viborg win
No significant pricing edge was detected for this selection at the recorded odds.
Why?
- Model probability
- 51.4%
- Model fair odds
- 1.94
- Available odds
- 1.83
- Expected value
- -5.9%
Odds are valid as of July 22, 2026, 11:07 CET.
Positive value requires at least a 2 percentage-point probability edge, 5% expected value and the same odds snapshot.
Injuries & Suspensions
- Viborg: T. Freriks (Inactive), Y. Njoh (Injury), T. Freriks (Inactive), Y. Njoh (Injury)
- Odense: J. Grot (Inactive), W. Martin (Injury), J. Grot (Inactive), W. Martin (Injury)
H2H (Last 5)
- 2025-10-19 · Viborg · 1-2 · Odense
- 2025-07-27 · Odense · 3-1 · Viborg
- 2024-05-25 · Viborg · 2-1 · Odense
- 2024-04-12 · Odense · 1-3 · Viborg
- 2024-02-16 · Viborg · 1-2 · Odense
Match Preview
Viborg enter the opening round with the clearer home edge, and that matters in a fixture that has regularly leaned on fine margins. The recent head-to-head history is mixed enough to keep caution in the picture, but Viborg have taken two of the last four meetings and know how to make this matchup uncomfortable for Odense on their own ground.
The squad news tilts slightly against both teams, though Viborg’s absences are more manageable. T. Freriks is inactive and Y. Njoh is out injured, but Odense are also without J. Grot and may still have to manage W. Martin’s fitness. That does not dramatically reshape the contest, yet it does reduce the likelihood of either side controlling the game for long spells.
What stands out most is the balance of the forecast: Viborg are projected to score just over 1.7 goals, while Odense sit closer to 1.1. That suggests a competitive match, but one in which the hosts should create the better chances and spend more time in the front foot positions. Odense’s away profile and the draw threat still matter, especially in an early-season game where rhythm is rarely perfect, but the Danish Superliga opener often rewards the side with the sharper home structure.
The most likely score profile points toward a narrow Viborg success rather than a statement win, and that fits the nature of the matchup. Odense have enough quality to stay in it, but Viborg’s home setting and slight statistical edge make them the more convincing side to trust.
ScoreCast Pick
Viborg win • Odds 1.83 • Confidence 6/10